The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has released its Monthly Tropical Cyclone Forecast covering the period from September 2024 to February 2025. According to the forecast, a total of 6 to 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to affect the country within this timeframe.
Breakdown of Expected Cyclones Per Month:
- September 2024: 2 or 3 cyclones
- October 2024: 2 or 3 cyclones
- November 2024: 1 or 2 cyclones
- December 2024: 1 or 2 cyclones
- January 2025: 0 or 1 cyclone
- February 2025: 0 or 1 cyclone
The data provided by PAGASA shows that October and November are the months with the highest likelihood of tropical cyclone formation, with up to 3 cyclones possible in both months. Cyclones tend to decrease in frequency as the year ends, with December having 1 to 2 expected storms. By January and February 2025, only 0 to 1 cyclone is expected to develop.
Historical Trends and Impact
PAGASA’s forecast aligns with historical cyclone activity in the Philippines, as the country experiences an average of 20 cyclones per year. The graph shows the average frequency of cyclones from 1948 to 2023, peaking during the months of July to November. These months typically see the highest number of storms due to the convergence of favorable meteorological conditions.
Preparedness is Key
As tropical cyclones pose significant risks to lives and property, PAGASA continues to remind the public to stay updated on weather bulletins, especially during these active months. Local government units are also encouraged to bolster preparedness measures to mitigate potential impacts from strong typhoons.
For more updates, residents are advised to follow PAGASA’s official channels and remain vigilant during the peak cyclone season.
Screengrab: PAGASA
